The view from here: what 20% looks like for a New Democrat

From a Toronto Star poll with an astonishingly small margin of error, the NDP broke the illusive 20% range. Notwithstanding freak polls, and the regular up and downs of political polling in Canada it's important to note that the party has been playing it's cards right.

The momentum of the party has been building with or without it being reflected in the polls: unprecidented and new found strength in Quebec, along side the ongoing draw of Jack, with a renewed sense of confidence in the party brand. That hasn't come easily and there have been some hard lessons learned. Most recently, I believe the party has finally managed to find a balance between message discipline, and scattered unreliable, unresearched messaging-- with all credit due to the brains behind the party. I believe they are listening and being responsive to the party's grassroots.

The party now seems poised to learn lessons from its grassroots in a way which gives the local Riding Associations meaning again, and stimulates discussion and enjoyment for what we do. It's a form of politics which is viable and smart, and gives credit to the intelligence of the average citizen. Something which is long overdue in Canadian politics. 1337's little exchange with Jack explains this very occurance. Incidentally, the article Jack refers to by Broadbent is posted here .

Not to be overly negative, but these polls are not likely to last, in that we will see some ups and downs. It is not impossible to see more 20% and over polls, but we have to be ready for low polls still. Nevertheless the party should be working "ahead of the polls" with its messaging and tactics.

In terms of popular support, your first 5% are your freaks (of which I am one); the next 5% your freaks' family members and co-workers; the next 10% (10%-20%) are people who simpathize with your freaks and what your are trying to do with the world; the following 10% (20%-30%) freaks are people who not only agree with your ideas, but need the allure of winning or some other form of excitement to earn their support; the subsequent 10% (30-40%) are folks who are simply looking for their chance to be on the winning team.

It is incumbant upon the party to realize that logical arguments and nastalgic tails of what we have done in the past half-century won't work. Our message has to be concised into an emotional and subtle frame which resonates with the core to the extent that they want stay on message, but also leads people in the party's periphery to believe in the work and ideas of the party. Our prospects of winning (while present) will never be enough to convince enough people to vote, we need somthing else-- some emotional draw to pull us into the NDP message. The NDP appears to have it's freaks, it's freaks familes, and now the only challenge is to reach out to the sympathetics who need some excitement to stop voting Liberal.